Fooled by Randomness：The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets-Nassim Nicholas Taleb

FOOLED BY

RANDOMNESS

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CONTENTS

Cover Page

Title Page

Dedication

Preface

Acknowledgments for the Updated Second Edition

Chapter Summaries

Prologue

PART I: SOLON’S WARNING

•

Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction

One IF YOU’RE SO RICH, WHY AREN’T YOU SO SMART?

NERO TULIP

Hit by Lightning

Temporary Sanity

Modus Operandi

No Work Ethics

There Are Always Secrets

JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER

An Overpaid Hick

THE RED-HOT SUMMER

Serotonin and Randomness

YOUR DENTIST IS RICH, VERY RICH

Two A BIZARRE ACCOUNTING METHOD

ALTERNATIVE HISTORY

Russian Roulette

Possible Worlds

An Even More Vicious Roulette

SMOOTH PEER RELATIONS

Salvation via Aeroflot

Solon Visits Regine’s Nightclub

GEORGE WILL IS NO SOLON: ON COUNTERINTUITIVE TRUTHS

Humiliated in Debates

A Different Kind of Earthquake

Proverbs Galore

Risk Managers

Epiphenomena

Three A MATHEMATICAL MEDITATION ON HISTORY

Europlayboy Mathematics

The Tools

Monte Carlo Mathematics

FUN IN MY ATTIC

Making History

Zorglubs Crowding the Attic

Denigration of History

The Stove Is Hot

Skills in Predicting Past History

My Solon

DISTILLED THINKING ON YOUR PALMPILOT

Breaking News

Shiller Redux

Gerontocracy

PHILOSTRATUS IN MONTE CARLO : ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOISE AND INFORMATION

Four RANDOMNESS, NONSENSE, AND THE SCIENTIFIC INTELLECTUAL

RANDOMNESS AND THE VERB

Reverse Turing Test

The Father of All Pseudothinkers

MONTE CARLO POETRY

Five SURVIVAL OF THE LEAST FIT–CAN EVOLUTION BE FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS?

CARLOS THE EMERGING-MARKETS WIZARD

The Good Years

Averaging Down

Lines in the Sand

JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER

The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations

The Traits They Shared

A REVIEW OF MARKET FOOLS OF RANDOMNESS CONSTANTS

NAIVE EVOLUTIONARY THEORIES

Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness?

Six SKEWNESS AND ASYMMETRY

THE MEDIAN IS NOT THE MESSAGE

BULL AND BEAR ZOOLOGY

An Arrogant Twenty-nine-year-o